Most of the paper mills are running at 100 percent capacity and paper prices have remained firm and demand quite strong. However, the lower GDP projected will bring pressure in the next few quarters. Imports from China will also have an impact. With international prices coming down, cheaper imports will become a threat. Domestic demand was growing all along with the GDP growth. With new capacities added in the last two years, the new supply and demand has to find balance now.
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With global economy slowing down, there has been a huge pile up of inventories for larger paper mills in China and Indonesia. They are seeking push some part of their inventory into India and other Asian markets. Indian paper though going strong with domestic demand, has made a demand to the Union Ministry through IPMA to raise the duty of imported paper from 10% to 15%. China has recently re-introduced export incentive for their paper industry and this has raised alarms.
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Paper industry, which faces difficulty in getting wood pulp has started to induce farmers to take contract farming. Now every farmer, who plants eucalyputus , acacia or sabaul will get Rs.15000 per acre. The agreements are done to benefit the farmers, either they get market price for wood pulp or as per the contract price or whichever is higher. The industry also provides assistance in lending or coax banks to lend, as most plantations take 4 years to yield. Expected demand for paper is to go up from 8.0 million tonnes to 11.5 million tonnes by 2010.
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